A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide by Burton G. Malkiel

By Burton G. Malkiel

Okay, so i am not performed with the ebook but, yet i am already irked that i learn the 1st a hundred pages whilst it may simply were condensed into twenty or thirty pages. Soo boring... Get to the beef already!

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Never mind that stocks with high PE ratios beat the market just 35 percent of the time over the last 52 years—the story is so compelling, you’re happy to throw the base rates out the window. THE INDIVIDUAL VERSUS THE GROUP Human nature makes it virtually impossible to forgo the specific information of an individual case in favor of the results of a great number of cases. We’re interested in this stock and this company, not with this class of stocks or this class of companies. Large numbers mean nothing to us.

Even though virtually every study conducted since the early 1950s finds that simple, actuarially based models created with a large data sample will outperform traditional active managers, they refuse to admit this simple fact, clinging to the belief that, while that may be true for other investors, it is not the case with them. Each of us, it seems, believes that we are above average. Sadly, this cannot be true statistically. Yet, in tests of people’s belief in their own ability— typically people are asked to rank their ability as a driver—virtually everyone puts their own ability in the upper 10 to 20 percent!

And, because we time-weight information, we give the most recent events the greatest import. We then extrapolate anything that has been working well recently very far out into time, assuming it will always be so. How else could the majority of investors have concentrated their portfolios in large-cap growth stocks and technology shares right before the technology bubble burst and the biggest bear market since the 1970s ensued? It’s extremely difficult not to make decisions this way. Think about the last time you really goofed.

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