By Thomas R. Keene
This booklet deals a window right into a realm infrequently visible even by means of many subtle traders and policymakers—the equipment, insights, and predictions of Wall Street’s best marketplace economists. those hugely expert, commonly skilled inspiration leaders function within the round the clock crucible of the world’s monetary markets. Their phrases impact the circulate of billions of bucks each day.Unique between contributors within the capital markets, the executive economists at those major companies mix a command of educational learn, rigorous analytical equipment for making experience out of a sea of industry info, and a long time of intuiting, quantifying, and verifying the complexities that attach modern real-time symptoms to tomorrow's real-world occasions. Clarity—the hallmark in their work—is the thread that connects the chapters of this booklet. this is often economics at its such a lot functional and possibly profitable.The 16 contributors—a assorted unfold of optimists and pessimists, but realists all—dig deep to determine what lies forward for the realm economic climate. no matter if the attitude of assault is international alternate and finance, demographics and deficits, or financial thought and executive coverage, their professional perspectives mix to form a physique of figuring out that could support marketplace watchers and industry makers succeed in clever, well timed funding and strategic judgements.
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Additional resources for Flying on One Engine: The Bloomberg Book of Master Market Economists
Productivity gains” are an elegant label for cost cutting. Thus, periods of unusually rapid productivity gains typically reflect either periods of notable technological advances or early cycle output gains following a slowdown, when fi rms have been hoarding resources in advance of improving demand. In any case, productivity gains tend to mirror fi nancial pressures on firms to improve their profitability. S. S. S. 2). The reasons for faster underlying productivity growth appear to reflect the direct and indirect benefits of a decade or more of outsized information technology investment.
1 Third, benign infl ation and falling unit labor costs—confi rmed by record profit margins— suggest that the nation’s productive resources remain underutilized. Finally, the unemployment rate never climbed as much as would have been expected, because growing numbers of young people—particularly those under 25 years old—probably are returning to school as they perceive limited immediate job opportunities. Therefore, the recent slack labor force growth reflects cyclical factors rather than secular demographic changes.
S. productivity growth was accelerating, suggesting that firms were improving their efficiency more rapidly than previously. By now, it appears that productivity is growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent on trend, a rate that is about triple the pace considered typical from the mid-1970s through the mid-1990s. S. S. economy’s growth potential today is double what it was during the 1970s to 1990s. S. economy can grow output at about 4 percent annually, versus the roughly 2 percent rate in previous decades.